Derek Brody is a senior writer on staff who has been a key part of Nachmany Football’s growth on the web. Follow him on Twitter @dj_brody10.
1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Suggested Draft Position: Top 5
As the reigning NFL MVP, Aaron Rodgers must be considered the consensus top
quarterback in fantasy this year. The Green Bay signal caller has the ability to
accumulate points both through the air and on the ground this year, making him
more valuable than Tom Brady.
2. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Suggested Draft Position: Top 8
Brady is still an elite fantasy quarterback, accruing 5,235 yards and 39
touchdowns last year. The Patriot attack looks to be even more potent this year with
the addition of wide receiver Brandon Lloyd, and Brady’s stats will rise as a result.
With the lack of solid RB1 options this season, consider Brady if you’re picking in
the 5-8 range.
3. Matt Stafford, Detroit Lions
Suggested Draft Position: Early 2nd round
Stafford, the first overall pick in the 2009 NFL Draft, broke out in a big way last
year, finishing with 5,083 yards and 41 touchdowns and leading the Lions to the
postseason for the first time since 1999. Stafford will only continue to improve, and
as long as he and Calvin Johnson stay healthy, Stafford will continue to rise in
these rankings.
4. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Suggested Draft Position: Early-to-Mid 2nd round
Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints certainly suffered through a tumultuous
offseason, one marred by the Bountygate scandal and Brees’ contract holdout. Brees
was simply unstoppable last season, obliterating Dan Marino’s record for passing
yards in a season, but expect to see him take a step back due to the offseason
distractions and the suspension of head coach Sean Payton.
5. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons
Suggested Draft Position: 3rd round
My breakout pick of the year, Matt Ryan seems to be right on the cusp of joining
Matt Stafford as the most promising young quarterbacks in the league. Ryan threw
for 4,177 yards and 29 touchdowns last year, but expect those numbers to increase
this season. The emergence of second-year wideout Julio Jones and the shift to a
more passing-oriented attack in Atlanta will contribute to Ryan’s huge jump this
year.
6. Eli Manning, New York Giants
Suggested Draft Position: 3rd round
Eli proved his doubters wrong last year, backing up his claims of being an “elite
quarterback” and leading the Giants to their second Super Bowl in five years. More
than that, Manning showed himself as a solid QB1 option, finishing with 4,933 yards
and 29 touchdowns. Pick Eli with complete confidence in the third or fourth round.
7. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears
Suggested Draft Position: 4th round
No one is expecting a lot from Jay Cutler this season, as evidenced by the fact that he
is currently the 15th quarterback on ESPN’s fantasy rankings. However, I am a big
believer in the Vanderbilt product. Cutler’s season last year was cut short by injury,
but the acquisition of wide receiver Brandon Marshall will give Cutler a huge boost.
In 2008, the last year Marshall and Cutler played together, Cutler threw for 4,526
yards and 25 touchdowns. Expect Cutler to be a solid QB1 option available much
later than names such as Romo, Rivers, and Vick.
8. Phillip Rivers, San Diego Chargers
Suggested Draft Position: 5th round
Rivers suffered through a subpar campaign last season, as injuries decimated much
of his offensive line and receiving corps. Expect a bounceback season from Rivers,
but buyer beware. Rivers lost his best wide receiver, Vincent Jackson, to free agency,
and star tight end Antonio Gates hasn’t played a full season since 2009. Nonetheless,
Rivers is talented enough to be a low-end QB1.
9. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
Suggested Draft Position: 5th round
Cam Newton was the breakout star in fantasy football last year, wildly
outperforming expectations and leading many teams, including mine, to fantasy
championships. However, there are reasons to be wary of the Carolina standout.
Newton dropped off drastically in the second half of the season as defensive
coordinators had game film to plan against him. Over the last 8 games of the season,
Newton averaged less than 220 passing yards per game, with 10 touchdowns and
7 interceptions. With DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, and Mike Tolbert in
the backfield, it is unlikely that Newton will repeat his rushing feats from last year.
Resist the urge to select Newton high this year, as he looks to be in position for a
sophomore slump.
10. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys
Suggested Draft Position: 6th round
Tony Romo, while wildly criticized, has proven to be one of the most consistent and
talented quarterbacks in football. However, Romo has a lot to overcome if he wants
to repeat his stats from last year. Already dealing with the loss of slot receiver,
Laurent Robinson, news has come out that Miles Austin will miss the entirety of the
preseason with a hamstring injury. Meanwhile, Romo’s favorite target Jason Witten
lacerated his spleen against the Raiders and running back DeMarco Murray has
durability issues. While Romo may still perform, a brittle supporting cast will hold
him back this year.
11. Ben Roethlistberger
Suggested Draft Position: 7th round
Ben Roethlisberger’s stock could shoot up or down within the week, depending on
the status of wide receiver Mike Wallace’s contract holdout. With Wallace on board,
Roethlisberger has decent upside, as he will be able to stretch the field with Wallace
and Antonio Brown. However, Roethlisberger is not known for his durability, so it
would be a good idea to invest in a backup if you choose the Pittsburgh veteran.
12. Michael Vick, Philadelphia Eagles
Suggested Draft Position: 7th round
Vick disappointed many fantasy owners who drafted him early last season, playing
only 13 games and not delivering the statistics many expected from him. While
he still has Desean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and Lesean McCoy at his disposal, Vick
has lost some of his explosive athleticism. His declining skills, coupled with his
durability concerns, mean you should stay away from Vick until the middle rounds.
13. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos
Suggested Draft Position: 8th round
By far the most difficult prediction this season, Manning will have multiple obstacles
to overcome this season. Coming off four neck procedures, it will be interesting to
see how Peyton handles pressure this season. Additionally, he will have to gel with
new receivers and regain some of his lost arm strength. His current draft position on
ESPN is the 4th round, which is much too early for my taste. As with Vick, stay away
until the 7th or 8th round.
14. Matt Schaub, Houston Texans
Suggested Draft Position: 8th round
Matt Schaub is not a bold pick, but a smart one, especially in the middle to later
rounds. Before injuring his foot last season, Schaub was on pace to throw for almost
4,000 yards and 24 touchdowns. Assuming he is fully recovered from that injury,
Schaub comfortably projects as a low-end QB1 or high-end backup.
15. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
Suggested Draft Position: 9th round
Griffin is the first and only rookie to join these rankings, and his number ranking
15 may prove to be too low by the end of the season. Griffin has incredible athletic
ability, which will allow him to pick up rushing yards and touchdowns, even if he
is not prolific through the air. Griffin is a high-upside backup at this point, but may
jump to the top of these rankings by next year.